In 2026, Turkey-EU defense relations are likely to deepen in practice while remaining politically constrained. Europe’s rearmament drive, shaped by the war in Ukraine and growing doubts over long-term US security guarantees, will prioritize speed, scale and affordability. In this context, Turkey’s defense industry increasingly appears less as an outsider and more as a useful partner.

Cooperation will advance mainly through member-state-led partnerships, rather than formal EU-Turkey frameworks. Joint ventures such as the Baykar-Leonardo initiative point to selective integration, particularly in drones and other unmanned aircraft, where Turkish firms have clear advantages. These arrangements allow European governments to address urgent capability gaps without reopening sensitive debates on accession or democratic standards.

Limits will remain. Political mistrust will continue to constrain cooperation and prevent broader political convergence. Yet in defense-industrial terms, the partnership is increasingly strategic. Once joint production and supply chains are in place, cooperation becomes hard to unwind. In 2026, Turkey-EU defense ties will reflect managed pragmatism: strategic in effect, selective in scope, and driven by necessity rather than trust.